Gold price slowdown before US fed reserve meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday 26-27 of July

by .

Today, Monday, July 25th. Participants of the currency and commodity markets waiting for the  meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the comments from  Janet Yellen on the US Fed's plans for the future until the end of 2016. Most analysts and market participants continue to assess the chances of a hike rate till to the end of the year, as below 50%. Nevertheless, the positive statistics on the level of unemployment, the growth of the number of jobs and the reduction in the number of applications for unemployment puts pressure on the currency market and the market of precious metals. The dollar is once again on high against major currencies, the index holds the level 97-97,5. Against this background, the price of gold continues to be adjusted to the level of the end of June (28 June), at least today, $ 1,313.47 and a maximum of $ 1324. Overall, for the period

28 .06.2016-24.07.2016 prices remained in the wide range of $ 1313- $ 1367 per ounce.

    Market participants are also expected the meeting  of Bank of Japan, which will take place on 29 July. On the BoJ meeting should be decided about new economic stimulus.

     Meeting of the US Fed will be continued two days, on Wednesday at 20.00 in Prague, at 21.00 Moscow time will be published a decision on the % interest rate, and the speech of the US Federal Reserve comments and forecasts concerning the state and development of the US economy. In addition, on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected a lot of important economic statistics, which can also affect the situation on the foreign exchange market and the market of precious metals. Today, the price of gold is held in a narrow range near the minimum levels of the 1-month period (June 28-July 24), is trading $ 1313-1318 per ounce.

     This level of gold prices is minimum and attractive to buy. We do not expect anything new from the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the comments of the Head of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen. Most likely, the head of the US Federal Reserve shall sign the improved economic statistics due to lower and stabilize the unemployment rate.

   However, no one cancels future practical steps the British Government to withdraw from the EU. No one can predict the medium and long term impact on the world economy. Output process will take 2-3 years. Getting British exit from the EU process is scheduled for September, the Prime Minister must submit to Parliament a special offer for such a decision. After a positive decision by the Parliament, the decision will be officially announced.

    The situation in China's economy also remains fragile. The Chinese authorities are forced to continuously maintain the RMB devaluation process soft to support the industrial sector, which is set for export. In addition, the continued support of the financial sector through the banks.

     In the near future, until Wednesday 27 July, the price of gold will fluctuate in a narrow range lows in the $ 1310- $ 1320 / ounce. On Tuesday expected a part of economic statistics, it can affect the price of gold due to the preliminary expectations of market participants. If statistics confirm analysts' forecasts, the price of gold will adjust slightly until the publication decision of the US Federal Reserve and the speech of the US Federal Reserve. If the statistics would be better than expected, the price of gold may be adjusted in the direction of the lower support level boundary $ 1300 $ 1306 / ounce. If the statistics will be worse than analysts' forecasts, we can expect growth in the value of gold before the first resistance level of $ 1330- $ 1335 / ounce with the further development of a new wave of gold value growth after the US Federal Reserve meeting.

                                                 Tuesday, 26.07.2016

 

Time (Prague)

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 

 

15:45

USD

Services PMI (Jul)

52.0

51.4

16:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)

95.8

98.0

16:00

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)

1.6%

-6.0%

16:00

USD

New Home Sales (Jun)

560K

551K

 

 

                                                  Wednesday   27.07.2016

 

Time (Prague)

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 

 

14:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)

0.3%

-0.3%

14:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)

-1.1%

-2.3%

16:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)

1.8%

-3.7%

20:00

USD

FOMC Statement

 

 

20:00

USD

Fed Interest Rate Decision

0,5

0,5

 

Latest update: 25.07.2016

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