přehled devizových a komoditních trzích ráno 3. května

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Time 10.40 Europe, London 9.40.
Today in early trading price of gold is at high $ 1,300 / ounce, silver is also at highs of $ 17.68 / ounce.
    The fall of the dollar against the major currencies continues Tuesday. The dollar index fell to a new low of 91.98 against a basket of six currencies.
     In morning trading the Japanese yen won a new high 105.57 / dollar and the euro also rose against the dollar to a level of 1.1599 at the current time.
FOREX: The dollar / yen.
Impedance 4: Y108.23 - hour resistance April 28
Resistance 3: Y107.83 - at least 28 of April, now resistance
Resistance 2: Y107.42 - hour resistance April 29
Resistance 1: Y106.82 - a maximum of 2 May
Price: Y105.66
Support 1: Y105.87 - base Bollinger (tested)
Support 2: Y105.23 - 200-week moving average
Support 3: Y105.09 - base weekly Bollinger
Support 4: Y105.00 - psychological support
Note: Fresh 2016- and 18-month lows allow bears to focus on Y105.00-23, where the 200-week moving average and psychological support are. Daily oscillators are well poised for further losses, as the base of the Bollinger (Y105.91 and Y105.09) - is now a key issue of concern because they have the potential to limit the further fall. resistance layers accumulated. Bulls need to close above Y106.81, to ease the downward pressure, and above Y108.74, to hint at the rebound back to the area of the 21-day moving average (Y109.07).

Growth of the euro / dollar continued after closing above $ 1.1495, switching the direct attention to the $ 1.1584-1.1633 and denoting the general orientation at $ 1.1712, a maximum of 2015. The support layers accumulate to the extent that, as a couple doing their upward path. Bears are now required close below $ 1.1506 to alleviate current bullish pressure, and below $ 1.1432 to shift the focus back to the $ 1.1354-68, where the 21-day moving average. Daily oscillators are well poised for further growth. They still have room to grow before they will enter into the overbought zone.

FOREX: The euro / dollar. Technical analysis
Impedance 4: $ 1.1712 - a maximum of 24 August 2015
Resistance 3: $ 1.1633 - the 100-week moving average
Resistance 2: $ 1.1584 - a maximum of 25 August
Resistance 1: $ 1.1555 - the upper limit of the weekly Bollinger (tested)
Price: $ 1.1599
Support 1: $ 1.1506 - hour support May 2
Support 2: $ 1.1469 - hour support May 2
Support 3: $ 1.1432 - April 29 hour support
Support 4: $ 1.1368 - the April 28, at this time support

The rapid growth outpacing the British currency has coincided with a change in public opinion polls results on the outcome of the referendum on Britain's continued membership in the EU. As a result of the last seven polls, supporters of "yes" response was already at 7% (compared to 1% in early April) more than those who are "against." However, about 20% of respondents have not yet decided, therefore, to talk about the vote a foregone conclusion too early. Assuming that the UK remains in the EU, the pound is, of course, cheaper. According to some estimates, the pound / dollar is undervalued by about 16% and its average rate for the last 5, 10 and 20 years are $ 1.57, $ 1.66 and $ 1.64, respectively. Therefore, if the polls are correct, and some weakness of the British economy in the first quarter is the result of "Brekzita 'fears, in the medium term, the pound should appreciate against the backdrop of the political decline of the risk premium, the concomitant economic recovery and growth rate hike expectations.
   As of the morning of Tuesday, May 3, 2016, 10.50 in Europe, the pound forex successfully rose above $ 1.47, it is now at the level of 1.4723 / 1.4725, slightly adjusted to levels 1.4728 / 1.4730.

 

     FOREX: Brent Oil.

Impedance 4: $ 51.52 - 55-week moving average

Resistance 3: $ 51.07 - a maximum of 25 November

Resistance 2: $ 48.88 - the upper bound of the Bollinger

Resistance 1: $ 48.83 - a maximum of 3 December

Price: $ 47.79

Support 1: $ 45.44 - a minimum of 27 April

Support 2: $ 44.16 - a minimum of 26 April

Support 3: $ 44.02 - 21-day moving average

Support 4: $ 42.26 - a minimum of 19 April

Comment: The lack of progress since the establishment of 2016- and fresh 4-month high on Friday led to the closure below the 200-day moving average ($ 46.02), which immediately brought back pressure on the level of $ 45.44. Bears are trying to close below $ 45.44, to distance himself from the 200-day moving average and confirm the weakening of the bullish pressure. Closes below the 21-day moving average is necessary to shift the focus to bear $ 39.24-41.28. Bulls need to close above $ 48.83 to confirm the bullish bias and objectives in the area of ​​$ 51.07-52.

      Nevertheless, the rapid rally of major currencies against the dollar to end the inevitable correction. Analysts, traders and investors have to wait for news that could trigger a reverse movement of the dollar as a response / correction after the rally, which would entail and the correction in the commodity markets.

 

 

 

Latest update: 09.05.2016

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